The rise of One Nation, with a staggering 22% primary vote in the recent Guardian Essential poll, has sent shockwaves through the Australian political landscape. This surge in support, sparked by Pauline Hanson's controversial comments about Australian Muslims, has been largely attributed to disillusioned voters from the Coalition, seeking an alternative to the conservative chaos. However, the latest poll reveals a worrying trend for Labor as well, with a significant portion of their voters expressing openness to voting for One Nation.
Labor's response to this potential threat has been one of cautious optimism. Ministers are preparing their attack lines, highlighting One Nation's opposition to Labor's policies on cost of living and industrial relations, as well as Hanson's ties to Gina Rinehart. They recognize the need to focus on bread-and-butter issues like tax, housing, and social matters to prevent further erosion of their support base.
"While some may drift towards One Nation due to their divisive tactics and lack of substance, we believe it's less likely to impact us significantly," says Labor MP Mike Freelander. But the numbers tell a different story. The Essential poll reveals that a staggering 58% of respondents are open to voting for One Nation in the next federal election, due by 2028. This includes 12% of current Labor voters who plan to switch, with another 33% considering it.
For Coalition voters, the figures are equally concerning, with 17% stating they would definitely vote One Nation, and 51% open to the idea. One Nation's strategy to court traditional blue-collar Labor voters, who feel neglected by the party's focus on cities and professionals, seems to be paying off.
Labor's strategy to counter this insurgency is two-pronged. They aim to emphasize that One Nation does not represent working people and oppose the advancements made by trade unions. Albanese, in a recent podcast, highlighted One Nation's opposition to 'same job same pay' legislation, increases in penalty rates, and pay rises for aged care workers.
The Hunter region of NSW, rich in mining, serves as a cautionary tale for Labor. In 2025, Hanson's candidate, Stuart Bonds, almost unseated Labor's Dan Repacholi, who narrowly held his seat 59-41. Repacholi plans to focus on health, economic policies, and 'same job same pay' to win back support.
"It's about engaging with people, having meaningful conversations, and showing how we're helping them," Repacholi says. "Our community is vibrant, and we must not let a few divisive voices tarnish it."
Labor's environment minister, Murray Watt, acknowledges that some votes will be lost to One Nation, but he emphasizes Hanson's opposition to reforms on housing, cheaper medicines, and wages as a key reason for voters to stay with Labor.
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist, warns against overinterpreting the polls. He believes a small fraction of Labor voters have already moved to One Nation, typically those in their 40s or 50s, working in care, retail, hospitality, or industry, who benefit from improved working conditions.
Samaras cautions that One Nation's extreme criticism of multicultural Australia may turn off potential Labor-to-Hanson voters. He doesn't expect Labor to follow suit with tough migration crackdowns.
"There's a sense of frustration among voters, who are not just voting on policy but also expressing their dissatisfaction with the major parties and the rising cost of living. One Nation, despite lacking a coherent policy agenda, may appeal to those seeking a radical change," Samaras adds.
One Nation's online donation campaign reflects this sentiment, urging supporters to "break the party system." Combating this narrative is a challenge for Labor, who recognize the need to rebuild trust by delivering on promises and providing stable governance.
"We must highlight our achievements and focus on Australia's immigrant heritage and the importance of immigration to our economy," says Freelander.
Peter Lewis, Essential's executive director, warns Labor against repeating the mistakes of Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" comments or the British Labour government's migration crackdown. He urges Labor to adopt a left-leaning economic agenda, focusing on wages and workers' rights, to win back voters.
Albanese has faced criticism from the left for his comments about "good people" attending anti-immigration rallies, while assistant minister Julian Hill calls for progressives to acknowledge legitimate concerns about migration levels. Hill warns, "The trap is to ignore real concerns, which could lead to the same outcomes we're seeing globally."
Lewis predicts Labor will maintain its focus on policy and service delivery, but the May budget could be a pivotal moment. The government may choose to pick a fight on issues like capital gains tax or negative gearing to demonstrate its commitment to addressing inequality and the concerns of battling Australians.
"Labor must differentiate itself to appeal to progressives who desire a fairer economy. If the mainstream fails to deliver, we know how this story ends," Lewis concludes.
